ASIABIZBLOG

More American critics of Chinese intransigence here and here. More experts are mustered to plead a case believed persuasive, but not resulting in hoped-for change. And none should be expected, as I've argued many times on this blog, unless Chinese decision makers find change to be absolutely necessary and directly advantageous to them. Constant reports (for years) of what top level Americans are unable to accomplish has become a mainstay of traditional financial news, valuable to historical researchers 50 years from now and to a few policy makers in marbled halls. But otherwise of little value.

Lest we not forget the baby's rhyme, remember, please, that the wolf never could blow down the brick house of the last little pig. It was too strongly built to fall to the hot air with which the wolf blew down weaker structures. Why didn't the wolf offer the pig a bucket of slops to induce him out into the open? The pig was too smart. Why didn't he use a bulldozer? Because wolfie wanted to eat the piggy alive. Somewhere in the middle of these extremes lies a method involving a strong arm, but one must be willing to use it.

Quite a few years ago, I was interviewed for a position in Beijing representing a large Western industrial organization, which, it turned out, hoped to significantly influence Chinese government policy. I suggested it was not possible to move Chinese policy as far as the organization wished. (I hope, however, their choice for the position has done what I didn't think quite possible.) During our talks, I asked what the organization believed it could offer to benefit Chinese policy makers and, as well, what strength it possessed that would allow it to put substantial pressure on them, forcing change. As you have likely guessed by now, the latter is an essential part of achieving a goal in China when contrary individuals possess as much or greater authority than you. It appeared to me that the organization had not even considered these fundamentals of the equation. Needless to say, we were not a match.

Benefits are easy for Americans to think up. We really do like to help out. But this is different. Where is the stick and who is going to wield it?

[UPDATE: Has the administration decided to up the ante?]