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January 6, 2009
Electric Power Generation No Longer a Growth Industry in China?
Growth in electric power generation "has collapsed under the weight of the global economic implosion — at least for now," claims Andrew Revkin, author of the New York Times Dot Earth blog,. Environmental activists appear to consider this progress in the climate control wars -- the necessity for which I question. Global warning is a theorem whose proof I find circumstantial and unpersuasive. [But then, I'm generally skeptical and don't usually rush to judgment. Let's give it another generation or two...]
Certainly, the graph the weblog displays, based upon China's notoriously unreliable National Bureau of Statistics, claims a decrease in growth. Here, here and here (from 2002), just for starters. To what extent have these energy stats been studied, picked apart, cross-tested?
In 2001, Tom Rawski, economist at the University of Pittsburgh, in "What's Happening to China's GDP Statistics," argued persuasively that the unreliability of Chinese energy statistics has caused serious flaws in official GDP calculations. Has something happened between 2001 and 2008 in China that have made these statistics more trustworthy? [That was a rhetorical question.]
Yes, yes, I know. It seems believable: a widespread decrease in manufacturing will most likely cause a drop in energy generation. But where are the hard numbers? Why are Stanford academics parroting official Chinese numbers? Where is the analysis?
For a brief summation on Electricity Regulation in China, read this short paper, authored by Lehman, Lee and Xu, which Aldo de Nobili and Ed Lehman were kind enough to send me. Download file
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