Why was I not surprised to see, once again, the headline, "China Unlikely to Move on Yuan?"
Because I have been writing for nearly a DECADE-- and saying it to anyone who will listen since the mid-90s -- that the RMB will move only when Chinese decision-makers find it in their interests to do so, and even then, not greatly. And now is not the time. Nor is the future.
While I do find reading him worthwhile, the "poisonous criticism" to which Mr. Batson refers is not poisonous at all. It is toxic, but only as an opiate. It must be understood by negotiators on both sides that China will insist on maintaining its stance and the US will do nothing to further its own interests, but merely whine, and, thereafter, revert to its usual position of indignant inertia. With such purchasing power, the buyer known as the United States has a helluva lot more clout that it ever uses. Are we simpletons?
You've got to admire the boldness of the ministerial commentary:
Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said the yuan "is China's currency and this is not an issue the international community should discuss."
All the while, Treasury Secretaries say much the same thing, time and again. This year, it's:
"I think the strength, the sentiment in the Congress on this is overwhelmingly strong," Mr. Geithner said at last week's hearing. "I think it's important that China understands that."
[UPDATE: PBOC confirms. As I have expected all along -- how many over the years have seen this as I have? a bare handful? -- the ball has been sent back resoundingly into the American side of the court. Here's what I expect from the US: whiff!]
